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'Round Midnight: I'll Be Trading Banana Futures 6/17/2009 6:00 PM
Pretty obvious that the U.S. equity market is sick. Whether it's terminal or not is an open question. I said yesterday that it's 3:1 odds that Grantham and Belkin are wrong about the massive reflation move in stocks that will resemble Q4 1999. Today I'd say 5:1 and growing. Maybe they've changed their outlook -- I really haven't heard -- but if you study the action, that forecast is absolutely silly. Today was a classic as no doubt most of you understand, how rotting internals tell you what the trees look like, and screw the forest. The program trading behemoths threw a few thousand Molotov Cocktails out there around 3:50 PM today, and it looked like the market had found its footing.....in the eyes of the ignorant financial media scribes and traders who are new to this game. If someone is starting in this trading business today, never having experienced "normal conditions", they must think that it's just a ridiculous way to make a living. When The Mania ended in 2000 and that bear market began, eventually running its course I thought, "I'm glad that's done....I've gone through the worst they can throw at you and did Ok......" How funny. Well, it's especially hard today because all the abuse that went on for 30+ years, the Greenspan Put and easy money, the debt and leverage infatuation, the political tools that Fannie and Freddie became, the corruption on the Street -- the Internet Queen at Morgan Stanley was never implicated -- the miniscule American savings rate...all this and more is coming home to roost. And it's coming home to roost as a historical accident, a perfect storm, rushes in a transformational political period for America, one that will make people think "what was I thinking?" These guys tore the system apart from the ground up, and now it's too late. No big deal.....I'll be trading Banana Futures in Singapore by then. Tomorrow I'll have a full review of Charts Of Interest and I'll see you before Thursday's's open. Stephen _______
Long View Of First Solar With DeMark Indicators 6/14/09
Daily First Solar - Click To Enlarge Chart
