After a big sell-off/correction/bear market, closely watch the retracement bounce back to the 50 Day moving average. If there is an obvious failure to retake that level, the market may be going to a lower low. No guarantees, but that has often happened in the past with notable examples in 1929, 2000 and 2007.
Daily 1929 Dow Industrials
2000 Daily Nasdaq Composite
2007 Daily S&P 500
January 28, 2016: 120 Minute, Daily & Weekly Spiders With Oscillators And Tom DeMark Indicators
You can make money swing trading this stock market if you have reliable indicators, but position trading with confidence is still far from viable. Day-to-day volatility makes things too difficult. For example, on Tuesday we had a 90% Upside Day along with a 10:1 Up Volume/Down Volume ratio. Then the market fell apart on Wednesday, and is roaring back today along with Facebook. On the charts below one positive is that the DeMark Sell TDST on the Weekly Spiders contained the worst of the selling so far. Still no macro buy indicators yet, but when they happen the market will erupt upside in a hurry. That will be the place to make a lot of money quickly as a new, long-term upside macro move begins. The 50% retracement from early November high is a key level to get past in any sustained rally.
January 28, 2016: "Coordinated Cuts" Sends Oil Shorts To The Woodshed
That phrase -- "coordinated cuts" -- was what crude oil needed to at least stop the waterfall decline. We'll have to see if oil puts in a real bottom, or is this only another false dawn?
January 27, 2016: Monthly Apple With Tom DeMark Indicators
January 27, 2016: Weekly 10 Year Treasury Yield Macro Model With DeMark Indicators
January 25, 2016: Daily Oil ETF (USO) With Tom DeMark Indicators & %R
Extremes In Crude Oil Sentiment & Macro Moves
January 24, 2016: Weekly VIX & S&P 500 With Tom DeMark Indicators
VIX moving average crosses often provide good signals for the S&P 500
January 23, 2016: Daily S&P 500 With Tom DeMark Indicators
After a 15% correction, price has rebounded close to the 38% retracement level after equities reached an extraordinarily oversold technical level. Sentiment also became totally washed out. If Yellen relents and sends signals that more tightening is off the table for now as it should be, the market may stabilize. If the Fed insists on making another policy mistake by continuing the tightening campaign, it will probably send the S&P 500 into a true bear market.
The all-clear signal will not appear until macro bullish signals appear on the chart posted below on January 12th.
Just remember that TD Sequential or TD Combo 13's measure "Exhaustion", overbought or oversold markets, and TDSTs measure "Trend", breakouts or breakdowns. Paul Tudor Jones noted that TD Sequential failures -- there have been many on the buy side in the last 6 weeks -- signaled to him that he should press the prevailing trend ("down" in the present case).
Many traders are not aware of the usefulness of DeMark TDSTs. After a bottoming in stocks, we will see "early" TDST breakouts on longer term charts, and that will confirm any other buy signals.
January 21, 2016: St Louis Fed Stress Index And S&P 500; Oil Traders Still Bearish
Stress got very high, and so did the short-term oversold metrics including the usually reliable "Blood In The Streets" indicator. DeMark believes the bounce that started today could retrace 40% of the recent decline. However, if today's big bounce is completely given back Friday it will be an important tell
Oil Traders Remain Bearish, Perhaps Too Bearish Short-Term....Tom DeMark Indicators On Multiple Charts Suggested A Bounce
January 21, 2016: Weekly Indexes With Tom DeMark Indicators
These charts are bearish, but the preponderance of extraordinarily oversold indicators argues for a positive bounce in equities very soon. Getting short here doesn't look good from risk/reward viewpoint
January 19, 2016: NDR Three-Way Macro Model With Tom DeMark Indicators
"The Major Trend Index dropped 0.13 points to a ratio of 0.79 using data through January 8th. Several trend-following sub-models confirmed what our other "anticipatory" tools have been telling us for many months: a cyclical bear market is underway. Bearish market action to open 2016 has driven our tactical funds’ net equity exposure down to the 34-35% range. We’ll consider covering a portion of the equity hedge if evidence of a short-term low appears."
January 18, 2016: Russell 2000 With Tom DeMark TD Sequential And TDSTs
The Russell 2000 implosion and now bear market was a tell about how the broader market would perform in late 2015 and early 2016. Small caps can act badly and not effect broad market, but an implosion sets a bad precedent
January 15, 2016: S&P 500 Monthly Bollinger Bands With Tom DeMark Indicators
Russell 2000, Dow Transports and other indexes are already in bear markets. The S&P 500 looks like it may join them this year
January 14, 2016: Market On Wednesday Was The Second Most Oversold In Three Years....oversold bounce on Thursday based on heavily oversold market and the occurrence of a Lowry's 90% Downside Day, then back to hell on Friday
January 13, 2016: Market Rally Was Thin Even In The Summer
A handful of advancing large cap stocks created a mirage about how strong the bull market was.......it clearly wasn't strong
January 12, 2016: Weekly Macro Template With DeMark TD Sequential & TDSTs
One day the multiple macro buy signals will appear again like they did in 2009 and 2010 with wonderful results. No one knows when that will be. In the interim don't get blown out of the game
January 9, 2016: Daily Oscillator With DeMark TD Sequential & TDSTs
January 7, 2016: Daily & Monthly S&P 500 With Macro DeMark Signals
12/22/15: Monthly 30 Year Treasury Bond Yield With DeMark Indicators And Oscillator
Still unable to break up through 30+ year downtrend in yield, or the 200 month ma
120 Minute SPY Oscillator With Buy/Sell Signals
Coming into Monday the broad market was overbought on a short-term basis, but longer-term things look better on the charts, and also with positive seasonality arriving
10/20/15: Facebook & Tom DeMark Indicators
FB became overbought on multiple time frames
10/20/15: Daily S&P 500 Failed Box Breakout
10/19/15: Daily Oscillator With DeMark Indicators
10/15/15: Two Clear DeMark Buy Signals Intraday........
..........flagged the coming upside explosion
10/14/15: DeMark TD Sequential 13 Buy & Box Breakout
Airlines Vs S&P 500
10/9/15: Monthly S&P 500 Oscillator
10/5/15: Short-Term Trading Facebook With DeMark & Oscillator
10/5/15: 60 Minute,102 Minute & Daily Oscillators With DeMark Indicators: Through the Buy TDST on 60 Minute chart
10/2/15: Trend Day Up, Multiple "Add Points" Using DeMark Indicators
9/29/15: 5 & 21 Minute Charts With DeMark And Oscillator
9/25/15: DeMark TDSTs & TD Seq Indicated That The Breakdown In Afternoon Could Get Ugly
9/24/15: Day Trading With Tom DeMark Indicators
9/24/15: Day Trading With Tom DeMark Indicators
9/10/15: Volatile Market Sets Up Swing Trading Opportunities
Using 120 Minute Oscillator + DeMark
Junk Bonds: A DeMark TD Sequential Monthly Message
Early break through the Sell TDST implied more downside to come
Charting The August 2015 Massacre: There Were Indications It Could Be Bad
Both DeMark TD Sequential (S&P 500 Monthly), and the enormous six month sideways box consolidation on the Daily chart, implied that the break in the market could be bad.......
......and of course it was