July 13, 2014: Weekly 10 Year Yield With DeMark Indicators - TD Sequential & TDSTs
June 26, 2014: Daily Crude Oil - Long Trade Rather Crowded
A Fed Hawk, Charles Plosser, is spreading his wings and talking about making the first Fed hike next quarter
I could see that, but only under exigent circumstances like a virulent outbreak of inflation, a run on the Dollar, something totally unexpected that threatens the Fed's leveraged House Of Cards
In the meantime, in the Fed's wood-paneled, lush-carpeted dining room, between lunch courses Yellen assigned an econometrician to tape a sign -- "Kick Me, I'm A Moron Without A Ph.d" -- on Plosser's back when he got up to go to the john
He may have a Ph.d for all I know, but this is Yellen's way of letting off steam, engaging in high jinks with the staff, and forming a tight-knit group of acolytes willing to bring the world down if necessary
Meantime, the Nasdaq 100 is leading today led by Facebook, but the DJIA's move to 17,000 remains elusive
If we see a late day rally that could push it over
Back after lunch and hope you are faring well
June 21, 2014: The Right Stuff: Be In The Right Stock Sectors
June 11, 2014: Put Your Ear To The Track - Here's Where Trainwrecks Always Start
......With Financial Institutions who push too far
June 9, 2014: From The Alchemy Vault, March 2010 - Dow 11,000
June 1, 2014: It Won't End Well, But Line Of Least Resistance Is Clearly Up
Price has gone vertical, not unlike the ascent from the start of 1990 bull market. It won't end well, but none of us knows when that will happen
The corpses of top-callers are piled up like cordwood, and if traders are merely sidelined -- as many big names have been for the last 18 months (Faber, Belkin, etc) -- they've thrown away a huge opportunity
The trend is Up.....until something changes
May 22, 2014: Natural Gas With DeMark Indicators
There's no such thing as a risk-free layup, but this is a reliable trade
3:05 21 Minute Natural Gas -- Blew out the Sell TDST in an early break, and that was it for the day
11:14 21 Minute Natural Gas -- I find that early breaks through TDSTs, especially Sell TDSTs, are almost always worth taking with natural gas. It tends to trend better in my experience than crude oil, which I've found out the hard way in the latter
May 20, 2014: Dow Futures E-Mini With DeMark Indicators
May 18, 2014: Market Snapshot
May 15, 2014: 60 Minute S&P E-Mini Sell Signal
May 14, 2014: Consumer Comfort At A 6-Year High
May 12, 2014: DeMark Indicators Say "Up" For DJIA, While Tom Says The Top Is Now In
There was an "early" breakout through a Daily Buy TDST on the DJIA today -- the strongest major index on the charts -- implying more upside as I view it.
DeMark is using a different methodology for his conclusion, but I stick only with his TD Sequential and TDSTs
Daily Dow Industrials
May 7, 2014: DeMark Indicators & Other Technicals Argue For Long Treasuries
April 30, 2014: Apple's Short Squeeze
April 23, 2014: Who Should You Believe?
April 12, 2014: DeMark Indicators -- TD Sequential -- Will Find Macro Bear Inflextion Points
April 10, 2014: 60 Minute S&P E-Mini With DeMark Indicators & Oscillator
April 8, 2014: Cisco 2000 Vs Facebook 2014 With Demark TD Sequential.....A Comparison For The Bears
It's an interesting comparison, and may mean nothing, but the similarities are apparent. For the next 50 years or more, 2000 will serve as a touchstone for new manias because I don't think we'll see anything comparable in our lifetime
April 6, 2014: Junk Bond Spreads & DJIA 1998 - Present
April 5, 2014: Reading The Treasury Yield Curve Entrails
March 26, 2014: Speculators Gold Frenzy Got Out Of Control
Speculators Gold Frenzy
March 24, 2014: Weak Dollar? That Doesn't Make Sense Doesn't Make Sense: A Stronger Dollar Looks More Probable
"This isn't about Russia and the Ukraine, China and Japan…or even U.S. Treasuries. It's about the dollar!" Pomboy all but screams for emphasis. For going on three years, central banks and private investors have been shifting assets out of greenbacks in reaction to the Fed's printing press, which still is running at a healthy clip.
And notwithstanding the expectations of tighter policy, she thinks the opposite is likely—a reversal of the tapering of Treasury purchases as the economy fails to perform up to snuff. And while that might keep a cap on interest rates, the dollar will get hit. "In our view, the dollar, not interest rates, would always be the valve for our monetary sins," which Pomboy thinks poses a greater danger to the U.S. economy "than anything Putin might pull off."
That remains a minority view, especially after Janet Yellen presided over her first meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee and first post-confab press conference as Fed chair. The upshot was that the market inferred from her comments and the panel's materials that the initial increase in interest rates is coming sooner than previously expected, resulting in a slightly higher upward path for short-term rates.-- Randall Forsyth, Barron's, 3/24/14
March 13, 2014: China (With DeMark) & Industrial Metals
There was an early break through a DeMark Sell TDST On China Equity Index
March 12, 2014: Good Sell Signal
March 9, 2014: The Ghost Of Irrational Exuberance
March 6, 2014: The Public Loading Up On Call Options
March 3, 2014: Stocks Were Overdue For A Sell-Off
March 2, 2014: Brazil & China Debt Issuance
The offshore issuance of debt securities by emerging market firms has proceeded at great pace in recent years.
Figure 2 plots the international debt securities outstanding of 4 borrowers from Brazil and China, plotted by residen ce and by nationality. The difference between the nationality and residence series is accounted for the offshore issuance of international debt securities.
The difference remained small until after the global financial crisis, but since has widened dramatically. We can also se e from the scale of the charts that the outstanding amounts are large.
McCauley, Upper and Villar (2013) note that most of the offshore issuance has been in U.S. dollars, so that emerging market corporates have become much more sensitive to U.S. interest rates and the fluctuations in exchange rates vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar
February 28, 2014:Power Of DeMark TD Sequential TDSTs
Early breakouts through TDSTs can go a long way
February 27, 2014: Emerging Markets Currency Contagion
February 24, 2014: Crowded Long + Milder Weather = Implosion
1:24 Natural Gas tumbled the most in three weeks in New York as meteorologists predicted milder weather that would reduce demand for the heating fuel.
Gas slid as much as 9.7 percent after reaching a five-year high in intraday trading. A midday update to the Global Forecast System model showed higher temperatures than previously forecast in the Midwest from March 6 to March 10
I posted this chart on Off Off Wall Street Sunday -- a crowded long + milder weather = implosion
February 22, 2014: Will Yellen Run Out Of Bullets?
February 12, 2014: Two Relatively Rare Buy Signals Preceded Cuurent Stock Market Bounce
Daily S&P 500
February 5, 2014: Weekly 10 Year Treasury Yield With DeMark
January 30, 2014: Greatest Fade Site Of All Time
January 29, 2014: S&P Futures - Multiple Intraday DeMark Signals
January 25, 2014: Submerging Emerging Markets Have Been Calling The Shots
January 20, 2014: Emerging Markets - Very Clear What To Be Long/What To Be Short
January 19, 2014: Gundlach Knows Bonds, And So Do The Tom DeMark Indicators
Weekly 10 Year Treasury Bond Yield
January 16, 2014: Twitter A Great Trading Vehicle With DeMark
January 12, 2014: Hope & Fear
January 9, 2014: Twitter & Yahoo 2000
December 31, 2013: This Upside Breakout Said "Stay Long Or Get Long"
Added to the 11th trading day of December as a kick-off point, this breakout reinforced the idea that the equity market was going higher into year-end. Fading this strength made no sense
December 26, 2013: Where December Seasonal Rallies Kick Into High Gear.....
......Near 11Th Trading Day Of December
December 7, 2013: It's A Bull Market, But On The Radar Screen Just In Case
December 4, 2013: DeMark Indicators Tame Very Wild Intraday Action Today